Introduction

Hydrology Modeling for Assessing Impact of Climate on River Flow in Kyrgyzstan

Summary

There are more than 3,000 small rivers In Kyrgyzstan. They form the main rivers of Central Asia, such as Syrdarya , Chu and Talas rivers . The riparian states use the water for economic activities such as irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. In the past decade, hydrology modeling of river runoff base on spatial detail has become a major tool in the study of water balance components of river basin and possible changes of water balance under human impact and climate change.

Currently, there are various hydrological models take into account certain hydrological processes inherent in an investigated area, which influence on rivers formation in a region. The process of forming Kyrgyzstan rivers is very complex, but one of the most important factors is a terrain height (Bolshakov 1974, Tsytsenko 1970), since the terrain height affects the amount of precipitation, snow accumulation and melting of glaciers. Existence of dependence of river flow on altitude in the Kyrgyzstan was found out by Kyrgyz hydrology in the 60 years of the last century. They conducted extensive research of this issue during 60-70 years and have developed an approach for calculating river flow using dependence flow on altitude (DFA). Developed DFA approach allows evaluating flow for rivers without observation data. This approach is widely used at present. However, specification of DFA approach is required by modern data due to ongoing climate change. Beyond that point for specification of DFA approach need huge amount of spatial data (area of river basins, altitudinal zones of river basins etc.), consequently, using of GIS technology. Thus, the creation and application of hydrological models for calculating river flow based on DFA approach will allow an evaluating rivers flow without observation data , an obtaining runoff data along river, which are widely used in the construction of bridges, roads , hydropower as well as the management of water resources .

The main goal of research is develop hydrological model based on DFA in ArcGIS, for evaluation of Kyrgyzstan river flow and assessment of impact climate change on river flow.

This PostDoc study therefore has the following specific objectives:

1. To provide a clear picture of past and current climatic conditions and river flow

2. To specify DFA approach for calculation of river flow base on modern data

3. To assess impact climate condition on rivers flow of Kyrgyzstan

4. To obtain the data base of water runoff for Kyrgyzstan rivers

The following methods will be applied:

1. Method of hydrological modeling base on GIS technologies will be applied to assess river runoff

2. Statistical analysis of climate and runoff data

3. Mapping . GIS technologies will be applied to assess spatial distribution and the dynamics

4. GIS technologies will be applied to assess area of river basins, altitudinal zones of river basins, river network etc.

Expected research results

• Maps and diagrams with climatic and hydrological information

• Established relationships between climate and hydrography

• Map, diagrams and data base of Kyrgyzstan river flow obtained by hydrology modeling.

• Water balances and dynamic diagrams combined on maps

• Set of recommendations for using maps of river flow by the customers

• 1 peer reviewed publications and scientific report